WEBVTT 00:00.000 --> 00:14.540 When you think about buying spreadsheet software, of course, the first thing you think about 00:14.540 --> 00:20.260 is Lotus 1-2-3. The product which established the spreadsheet is a major PC application. 00:20.260 --> 00:24.080 But nowadays, there's a whole new generation of spreadsheet programs which provide new 00:24.080 --> 00:28.700 levels of functionality and power. Today, we take a look at this new generation of spreadsheet 00:28.700 --> 00:58.160 software both for the IBM PC and the Macintosh on this edition of the Computer Chronicles. 00:58.160 --> 01:03.020 Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, makers of IBM-compatible computer systems 01:03.020 --> 01:07.660 including word processing with spelling correction, communication software, and Hays-compatible 01:07.660 --> 01:13.900 1200 and 2400 baud modems. Leading Edge with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. Leading 01:13.900 --> 01:19.080 Edge, leading the way to the information age. Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, 01:19.080 --> 01:24.260 publishers of Byte. Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, software, and languages 01:24.260 --> 01:35.340 cover developments in computer technology worldwide. Welcome to the Computer Chronicles. I'm Stuart 01:35.340 --> 01:39.260 Shafae and this is Gary Kildall. Gary, when we looked at spreadsheet software last week, 01:39.260 --> 01:43.460 we were talking about the MS-DOS world, IBM's, as you tend to when you're talking about business 01:43.460 --> 01:48.660 software. This is a Macintosh, believe it or not, the new Mac 2. And we hear an awful 01:48.660 --> 01:52.820 lot about the Mac in the business marketplace. This looks and acts a lot more like a business 01:52.820 --> 01:56.180 type computer. What do you think? Is the Mac going to be a serious player for people who 01:56.180 --> 01:59.100 use spreadsheets and that kind of thing? Well, Stuart, you know, when the Mac was first introduced 01:59.100 --> 02:02.620 several years ago, it really wasn't targeted at the business market itself. In those days, 02:02.620 --> 02:07.660 the typical business applications were spreadsheet, word processor, database kind of work. And 02:07.660 --> 02:11.540 it was really a graphics engine with a small, slow disk and so forth. But the two worlds 02:11.540 --> 02:14.780 of business and Mac have sort of come together. In business now, it's very important. Desktop 02:14.780 --> 02:20.020 publishing is a very important aspect of it. Image processing, general rich text, things 02:20.020 --> 02:24.820 of this sort. And the Mac has got now a large size screen, big hard disk. And so we can 02:24.820 --> 02:28.700 really see those two things working together. Now, also, Apple has announced their LAN strategy, 02:28.700 --> 02:32.900 hook up to IBM machines. So it could be a good choice for business. Gary, we're going 02:32.900 --> 02:37.780 to take a look at two of the top-rated spreadsheet programs for the Macintosh, Excel and Trapeze. 02:37.780 --> 02:42.260 And we'll also see two new generation spreadsheet programs for the IBM, things that do a lot 02:42.260 --> 02:46.220 more than the traditional spreadsheet. Now, one of the alternatives spreadsheet users 02:46.220 --> 02:49.980 have are the low-cost alternatives. And one of the big issues in spreadsheets right now 02:49.980 --> 02:56.420 is the whole issue of look and feel. We're going to start out with a report on that. 02:56.420 --> 03:02.540 This is a computer spreadsheet screen. This is a computer spreadsheet screen. And so is 03:02.540 --> 03:08.000 this. If they look similar, that's part of the reason for a sudden increase in lawsuits 03:08.000 --> 03:15.140 between software developers. Lotus, best known for its 123 program, is suing paperback software 03:15.140 --> 03:22.220 over the similarity of its VP planner program and Mosaic software for its twin spreadsheet. 03:22.220 --> 03:29.580 The heart of the complaint is that Mosaic and paperback both infringe the overall, quote, 03:29.580 --> 03:37.020 look and feel of the Lotus 123 program. Specifically, what they've claimed is that the defendants 03:37.020 --> 03:45.300 have used identical or very similar program names or command names, very similar menu 03:45.300 --> 03:50.860 structure and submenu structure, same kind of syntax in the language that they use in 03:50.860 --> 03:56.840 the programs, such that the user who looks at one program versus the other will say the 03:56.840 --> 04:02.780 overall look and feel is essentially the same. While a program's source code is clearly protected 04:02.780 --> 04:08.900 by law, the elusive look and feel of a screen display is a relatively new aspect of software 04:08.900 --> 04:14.760 protection and open to sharp disagreement. The idea is that a lot of the functionality 04:14.760 --> 04:22.300 that people need, you cannot patent or copyright. And further, a lot of the user interface words 04:22.300 --> 04:31.180 and things ought to be available to many people, especially that very common words are used 04:31.180 --> 04:36.700 in many cases. Take a simple book, any book that you have. Well, those are all words that 04:36.700 --> 04:40.940 are in the English language. And in that sense, they're not original. What becomes original 04:40.940 --> 04:46.580 is the manner in which the developer puts them together, the way that he organizes them 04:46.580 --> 04:53.140 or orders them or sequences them. That's what gets protected by copyright law. A recent 04:53.140 --> 04:58.220 case involving communication software could have a significant impact on future look and 04:58.220 --> 05:04.900 feel cases. DCA, which owns the Crosstalk program, sued the Softclone company for its 05:04.900 --> 05:10.620 mirror communications package. The court ruled in favor of the plaintiff. Given that the 05:10.620 --> 05:19.240 court in that case held that essentially one key screen was enough to constitute copyrightable 05:19.240 --> 05:24.940 material and found that the defendants had infringed that one key screen, that means 05:24.940 --> 05:32.780 that cloning user interfaces is going to be extremely suspect in the future. One of the 05:32.780 --> 05:37.900 many difficulties encountered by software developers is the overwhelming dominance of 05:37.900 --> 05:43.700 a handful of programs, which some companies view as de facto standards. And when you go 05:43.700 --> 05:49.660 into a stretched market, you realize that there is primarily one customer that dominates 05:49.660 --> 05:54.220 the market, and that is Lotus. They probably have approximately 60 to 80 percent of the 05:54.220 --> 06:02.340 marketplace. So the already existing de facto standards in the marketplace make it literally 06:02.340 --> 06:09.900 impossible for anybody to enter that marketplace or do anything constructive. All sides agree, 06:09.900 --> 06:14.980 for different reasons, that the outcome of these cases will have a major impact on the 06:14.980 --> 06:20.780 future of original software. Assume what's going to happen if in the worst case scenario, 06:20.780 --> 06:26.980 Lotus wins. Absolutely, it's going to be chaos. I mean, people are going to start doing things 06:26.980 --> 06:31.500 just for the sake of being different. They're going to make it different, and it's going 06:31.500 --> 06:37.300 to be incredibly hard for any user to do anything with any of these programs. One of the purposes 06:37.300 --> 06:43.660 of the copyright laws is to reward people's invention. I don't know what kind of creativity 06:43.660 --> 06:49.180 it is that's being stifled in this case. You know, is cloning considered that creative? 06:49.180 --> 06:55.740 I'm not sure. I think that perhaps more creativity comes out of the fact that authors are rewarded 06:55.740 --> 07:08.180 for what they've done. 07:08.180 --> 07:12.180 Joining us in the studio now is Mike Slay, the Macintosh products manager with Microsoft, 07:12.180 --> 07:16.460 the makers of Excel. Next to Mike is Andrew Wolfe, president of DataTailor, Inc., makers 07:16.460 --> 07:17.740 of Trapeze. Gary. 07:17.740 --> 07:22.260 Mike, the first, I guess, the granddaddy of spreadsheets, VisiCalc, was a character-oriented 07:22.260 --> 07:26.500 spreadsheet, and there was a major generation change when 1, 2, 3 came out with graphics 07:26.500 --> 07:30.100 and so forth. Now, is the Mac 2 going to be a, is that going to be a generation change 07:30.100 --> 07:31.100 also in spreadsheets? 07:31.100 --> 07:36.100 Well, I think the Macintosh in general helped that occur. The whole notion of a graphical 07:36.100 --> 07:40.620 user interface with pull-down menus and a mouse and icons led us to sign a spreadsheet 07:40.620 --> 07:44.460 Excel that was much more like working with pieces of paper on a desktop and letting you 07:44.460 --> 07:47.940 make relations between those pieces of paper. And this just extends that in many nice ways, 07:47.940 --> 07:49.340 color, graphics, speed. 07:49.340 --> 07:52.140 Andy, what are your thoughts on it? 07:52.140 --> 07:56.420 Well, I see the machine as allowing people to do things they have not been able to do 07:56.420 --> 08:01.300 before, work with larger spreadsheets, be able to calculate more complex models, display 08:01.300 --> 08:05.740 more charts, and that is going to improve a lot of people's productivity. 08:05.740 --> 08:09.340 Okay. Now, Mike, you have a demonstration of Excel you can give us, right? 08:09.340 --> 08:10.340 That's right. 08:10.340 --> 08:11.340 Good. 08:11.340 --> 08:15.220 So, as you can see here on the screen, Excel doesn't look much like a traditional spreadsheet. 08:15.220 --> 08:18.700 You have not one, but several different worksheets open, and they look like different pieces 08:18.700 --> 08:23.140 of paper on your desk, Mike. You can zoom the screen up and work with one or several 08:23.140 --> 08:27.340 sheets at a time and build formulas by pointing and clicking, strolling around the worksheet 08:27.340 --> 08:31.460 just by using the mouse. It's very simple. It's a very large worksheet. It's very fast, 08:31.460 --> 08:35.780 very easy to work with. It's very easy, for example, to build relationships between worksheets 08:35.780 --> 08:40.260 just by pointing and clicking. I can take these two subsidiary spreadsheets and just 08:40.260 --> 08:46.180 paste in the names for them and link them to this total spreadsheet, and without having 08:46.180 --> 08:51.920 to do any complex math or anything, I can just enter the formula, and it's automatically 08:51.920 --> 08:56.500 built so that later, if one of these values changes, say, from 71,000 to a much larger 08:56.500 --> 09:02.260 number like 710,000, you see the number is instantly reflected up here in the total spreadsheet. 09:02.260 --> 09:06.220 In a product like 123, not only couldn't you do that, but you couldn't even think about 09:06.220 --> 09:09.020 doing it because you could only see one spreadsheet at a time. 09:09.020 --> 09:13.740 In the same way, it's very easy, then, to take a group of numbers and very quickly open 09:13.740 --> 09:17.700 a window that has a graphical representation of those numbers, and that window can then 09:17.700 --> 09:21.460 be linked to those numbers, and I'll show you how that works in just a second here. 09:21.460 --> 09:25.980 So you can see I have a graph now that represents those numbers, and if one of these numbers 09:25.980 --> 09:32.820 up here changes to a smaller number, you'll see the graph is instantly redrawn to reflect 09:32.820 --> 09:37.200 that change. So you get visual feedback, and you can have as many charts or spreadsheets 09:37.200 --> 09:40.940 open at a time as you like. It's also very easy to change what the graph looks like. 09:40.940 --> 09:44.940 There's a built-in pictorial gallery, another innovation that the Macintosh facilitates. 09:44.940 --> 09:48.900 It lets you pick between different kinds of charts and have the chart be redrawn in whatever 09:48.900 --> 09:52.700 format it is that you'd like to see it in. And so rather than pick from some list of 09:52.700 --> 09:56.660 charts, it's very nice to be able to see a pictorial representation of that. 09:56.660 --> 10:02.460 One of the nicest strengths of a product like Excel is that it lets you automate things, 10:02.460 --> 10:06.060 and what I'm going to do here now is close all those spreadsheets and open what's called 10:06.060 --> 10:11.820 a macro. And Excel actually records what you do. It learns what you do and will then play 10:11.820 --> 10:15.460 it back, and I'm going to show you an example of something that Excel recorded my actions 10:15.460 --> 10:20.060 and turned them into a thing called a macro. And now it's going to automate the process 10:20.060 --> 10:26.540 of entering data, which notice it's actually prompting me with this little dialog box, 10:26.540 --> 10:32.580 and then asking me to put the data in, and then it takes the data, reformats it, and 10:32.580 --> 10:35.980 puts up a chart window of the data without me having to do anything. And that's really 10:35.980 --> 10:37.180 what computing is all about. 10:37.180 --> 10:40.860 Okay, yeah, and you didn't have to write the macro. It wrote the macro following what you 10:40.860 --> 10:41.860 were doing the last time around. 10:41.860 --> 10:45.340 Yeah, before I had just done those same commands, and it wrote the command line. You can write 10:45.340 --> 10:49.060 it if you like, but it's very simple to have Excel write it for you, and you can just go 10:49.060 --> 10:53.380 through. The new machine is going to give us opportunities to make Excel run in color 10:53.380 --> 10:57.340 and lots of things to expand the capabilities of it, but since we've introduced the product, 10:57.340 --> 10:59.180 we've just had a fantastic reception to it. 10:59.180 --> 11:02.500 Speaking of color, Mike, if I can ask you to unload Excel and we can get Trapeze in 11:02.500 --> 11:06.540 there, and while Mike is doing that, Andrew, Trapeze does run in color. We're going to 11:06.540 --> 11:09.900 see that in just a minute, and one of the features of the Mac 2, of course, is the color. 11:09.900 --> 11:13.140 What role does color play in spreadsheets? Does it matter at all? 11:13.140 --> 11:19.780 Well, it can help the person who's developing a spreadsheet to show his numbers in a way 11:19.780 --> 11:23.820 that's easier for other people to comprehend, and himself. He can show different numbers 11:23.820 --> 11:29.400 in red to show that he's losing money, or highlight labels with color so that they're 11:29.400 --> 11:33.780 easy to find in a very large worksheet, and of course, you can do charts in color, which 11:33.780 --> 11:38.580 allows you to show the information much more graphically than just black and white can 11:38.580 --> 11:39.580 do. 11:39.580 --> 11:42.140 Maybe the best way to answer it is to run Trapeze for us, and we'll see how you do use 11:42.140 --> 11:46.580 color, Andrew. Tell us what you're doing as you do it. 11:46.580 --> 11:52.460 I'm just selecting three worksheets that I'm going to be showing and opening them all. 11:52.460 --> 12:01.620 So you notice the windows are in blue. The difference between Trapeze and a normal spreadsheet 12:01.620 --> 12:06.500 is that instead of having rows and columns, it's a free-form type of spreadsheet. The 12:06.500 --> 12:11.340 basic unit is a block, which is a collection of numbers, which can be a row, a column, 12:11.340 --> 12:16.100 or a table, or even just an individual value, and it has a name, which you can change, and 12:16.100 --> 12:21.260 you use the names to build formulas. So in this case, this total sales block is the sum 12:21.260 --> 12:26.380 of sales. So it knows that there are four values here, so it's sum of them. The formula 12:26.380 --> 12:32.100 over here is sales divided by total sales. So it understands that there are four values, 12:32.100 --> 12:36.980 and there's one value, so it needs to produce four values. And because the relationships 12:36.980 --> 12:41.940 are all built by name, I can take the block and move it anywhere I want, rearrange it. 12:41.940 --> 12:48.180 I can change its size and shape. I can change its font. 12:48.180 --> 12:52.820 And of course, the relationships don't change. 12:52.820 --> 13:00.660 The relationships are totally independent of where the block is located. And as you 13:00.660 --> 13:06.020 can see, there's also charts on the same page. The charts are built the same way, with a 13:06.020 --> 13:10.820 chart formula and then the block, the sales block and the region block. So as I change 13:10.820 --> 13:16.940 the number up here, you can see the chart will also change, and all the numbers will 13:16.940 --> 13:22.060 recalculate. Because the Macintosh is so good at doing fonts and styles and pictures, there's 13:22.060 --> 13:25.780 no reason why you can't include a picture in with your worksheet. Now this may be a 13:25.780 --> 13:30.620 trivial example, but it does show the ability to include graphics along with your spreadsheet, 13:30.620 --> 13:35.380 so that you can have a data entry form or an invoice and have calculations on top of 13:35.380 --> 13:41.300 it mixed in in different fonts along with your graph. 13:41.300 --> 13:45.500 Now this is an, I'll show you an example of how you can build a formula very easy without 13:45.500 --> 13:50.980 having to remember how to type things. Right here is the sum of investments, which is the 13:50.980 --> 13:56.700 block right here. Now I'm going to build this simply by pulling the sum function from the 13:56.700 --> 14:03.660 scrolling menu. And then down here is a list of all the open worksheets. So I can go to 14:03.660 --> 14:08.220 any worksheet that's in memory by name. So in this case, I'm going to get invest at the 14:08.220 --> 14:11.540 checkbox and it recalculated it. 14:11.540 --> 14:17.180 So Trapeze allows you to not only do calculations, but also to lay them out in an attractive 14:17.180 --> 14:22.380 manner and a lot of people who do calculations need to present them to people. So Trapeze 14:22.380 --> 14:26.900 allows you to do it without having to go to other programs to put all the pieces together. 14:26.900 --> 14:30.060 Andrew, is Trapeze written especially for the Mac 2 or does it run on? 14:30.060 --> 14:35.260 It runs on all Macintoshes. This version is the version we shipped in January long before 14:35.260 --> 14:41.060 the Mac 2 existed and it ran in color then. We are producing a version specifically for 14:41.060 --> 14:44.820 the Mac 2 to take advantage of additional colors and some other features it can do. 14:44.820 --> 14:45.820 Mike, what about Excel? 14:45.820 --> 14:51.660 Excel was written at least almost two years ago and it runs fine on the Mac 2, but it 14:51.660 --> 14:55.580 runs on the entire Macintosh family. And we are also working on a new version that will 14:55.580 --> 14:57.780 take more specific advantage of the capabilities. 14:57.780 --> 15:00.860 Gary, I think it's pretty clear the answer to your question is we've come a long way 15:00.860 --> 15:04.860 from Modus 1, 2, 3. This is a generation leap. Gentlemen, thanks very much. We're going to 15:04.860 --> 15:08.660 be back in just a minute with two more spreadsheet programs that do a lot more than traditional 15:08.660 --> 15:12.620 spreadsheet work. One of them is called Words and Figures. The other is called Predict. 15:12.620 --> 15:25.820 So stay with us. 15:25.820 --> 15:30.900 With us now in the studio is Camillo Wilson. Camillo is president of Lifetree Software, 15:30.900 --> 15:35.300 makers of Words and Figures. And next to Camillo is Richard Roth, the director of Unison Technology, 15:35.300 --> 15:36.620 and they make a product called Predict. 15:36.620 --> 15:41.380 Camillo, on the last segment we just saw the Mac 2 with all the fancy high-resolution color 15:41.380 --> 15:45.580 graphics and so forth. Do you feel like people are going to move to that high-res graphics 15:45.580 --> 15:48.420 model, or are we going to stick with the 1, 2, 3 model everybody knows? 15:48.420 --> 15:52.580 Well, there's no doubt that some people will want to look into the world of the future. 15:52.580 --> 15:56.780 People are always doing so. But the fact is that 1, 2, 3 right now has an install base 15:56.780 --> 16:00.780 of approximately 2 million copies and that are compatible programs. And the last thing 16:00.780 --> 16:03.060 that people want to do is to relearn what they already know. 16:03.060 --> 16:07.900 Now, Richard, both of you have products that really, I guess, improve upon the 1, 2, 3 16:07.900 --> 16:09.980 model. What sort of things have you done to yours? 16:09.980 --> 16:13.700 Well, what we've done is to take what everybody already knows in terms of the spreadsheet 16:13.700 --> 16:20.340 model and add in the capability that a small group of people want to be able to do to express 16:20.340 --> 16:24.860 uncertainty in their spreadsheets and forecasting and modeling various business situations. 16:24.860 --> 16:29.540 So this is an extension of the basic model. Camillo, can you show us Words and Figures? 16:29.540 --> 16:33.140 Certainly. Words and Figures was predicated on the idea that, first of all, people wanted 16:33.140 --> 16:36.940 a reasonably priced, Lotus-compatible spreadsheet, which is the first thing that a Words and 16:36.940 --> 16:41.260 Figures is. Then on top of that, we added to Words and Figures a word processor, which 16:41.260 --> 16:45.940 is the most commonly used function that people do on their personal computers. So I will 16:45.940 --> 16:47.740 start here with a reconventional spreadsheet. 16:47.740 --> 16:50.700 Before you get to that, Camillo, I mean, what's the logic? I assume there's some premise here 16:50.700 --> 16:53.060 in terms of bringing the word processor into the spreadsheet. 16:53.060 --> 16:56.580 The premise is that if you have a financial story to tell, you may also want to tell people 16:56.580 --> 17:02.420 a qualitative, a verbal story about it. You want to brag about your profits or to be sorry 17:02.420 --> 17:06.740 about your losses. So for example, here we have a regular spreadsheet, and like any spreadsheet 17:06.740 --> 17:10.940 would, if you change one number, the totals change and all the percentages change, and 17:10.940 --> 17:15.980 we also have the conventional graphing capabilities that 123 release 1A has. What is new about 17:15.980 --> 17:20.940 Words and Figures, besides a very high-performance spreadsheet, is the addition of a simple-to-use 17:20.940 --> 17:28.300 word processor. So you can simply start by saying, the results for the year. 17:28.300 --> 17:30.700 So you press one key, and boom, you're into a word processor. 17:30.700 --> 17:31.200 Exactly. 17:31.200 --> 17:32.200 Rather than have to reload. 17:32.200 --> 17:35.260 Exactly. And the word processor feels like a real word processor. It does not feel like 17:35.260 --> 17:39.980 a spreadsheet. A lot of people use 123 to write, but that is a very unkind way to do 17:39.980 --> 17:43.780 it. So here we write our report, bragging to the chairman about our results, and now 17:43.780 --> 17:51.940 we import the spreadsheet itself. So we say, bring me the first 10 rows of the spreadsheet, 17:51.940 --> 17:56.100 and sure enough, here they are. Now, not only are they here present in the word processor, 17:56.100 --> 18:00.300 but they're also live. Notice that my cursor now looks like the conventional spreadsheet 18:00.300 --> 18:05.480 cursor. And if in fact I change these numbers right here to a large number, all of the numbers 18:05.480 --> 18:09.740 are recalculated. If I take a look at my spreadsheet, sure enough, the spreadsheet was also recalculated. 18:09.740 --> 18:12.500 So you can operate on the spreadsheet inside the word processor. 18:12.500 --> 18:17.100 And vice versa. I mean, any change made in one is reflected automatically in the other. 18:17.100 --> 18:20.220 And then to make it even more interesting, for example, you can split the screen into 18:20.220 --> 18:24.900 two windows. Here we have a horizontal window, and let's turn this one into a word processing 18:24.900 --> 18:29.500 window. So you can be composing the text in here while you're viewing the spreadsheet 18:29.500 --> 18:33.460 in the other window. And if you change one number here, sure enough, it will change in 18:33.460 --> 18:38.260 the other one. There it is. Okay. 18:38.260 --> 18:41.380 Is the word processor a so-called full-powered word processor? 18:41.380 --> 18:45.940 No, the word processor will not put a display right out of business. It is designed specifically 18:45.940 --> 18:50.220 to be a compatible word processor with the spreadsheet. For example, some of the things 18:50.220 --> 18:55.300 you notice in the word processor is that it uses a normal slash and the menu bar. So it 18:55.300 --> 18:59.420 feels very much like a spreadsheet, but it does all the things you expect a simple word 18:59.420 --> 19:00.900 processor to do. So just a layer on top of the spreadsheet, 19:00.900 --> 19:03.500 simple layer on top of the spreadsheet, then? Yes, the word processor. 19:03.500 --> 19:07.260 Camilo, if you can unload words and figures there so we can get ready to take a look at 19:07.260 --> 19:11.420 the prediction. And Richard, let's follow up on Gary's question before. You talked about 19:11.420 --> 19:14.340 using uncertainty inside a spreadsheet. Explain that a little bit more. 19:14.340 --> 19:18.860 Well, basically, when people talk about uncertain things, they talk about, they make statements 19:18.860 --> 19:23.580 like my sales will be between two various numbers and this one's going to be more possible 19:23.580 --> 19:27.340 than another one. They aren't really dealing with absolute numbers the way they do in a 19:27.340 --> 19:30.040 typical spreadsheet. Which forces you to put a specific number 19:30.040 --> 19:32.540 in there. Exactly. And if you don't have the capability 19:32.540 --> 19:36.620 of representing uncertainty, then when you do present the results in these forecasts, 19:36.620 --> 19:40.100 what you're doing is leaving out the majority of the data that you're really talking about. 19:40.100 --> 19:44.540 And what PREDICT enables you to do is to encapsulate all of the possibilities for a particular 19:44.540 --> 19:48.020 variable on your spreadsheet with all the probabilities associated with that and do 19:48.020 --> 19:51.180 calculations based on those probabilities. Could you show us how you do that? 19:51.180 --> 19:55.620 Sure, absolutely. Let me just bring up the PREDICT here. The best way to show it is to 19:55.620 --> 19:59.100 sort of give a comparison, if you will, between the way people use spreadsheets and the way 19:59.100 --> 20:05.900 you would use PREDICT in a similar situation. I can just restore a little sheet here. This 20:05.900 --> 20:10.140 is the most simple business model you could have. Sales, costs, and then profits. And 20:10.140 --> 20:13.620 what I can do is go down here and show you what a spreadsheet user might do. For example, 20:13.620 --> 20:19.060 he might say that his sales are, let's say, $1,000. And come down here and say that his 20:19.060 --> 20:24.780 costs are $500. And then doing a calculation to calculate the difference between the two 20:24.780 --> 20:27.620 to show what the profits are. In this case, something like this. 20:27.620 --> 20:32.180 Okay, so your sales minus your costs are going to equal your profits there. 20:32.180 --> 20:36.820 Okay. And that gives me a number. Now, in a spreadsheet, 20:36.820 --> 20:40.480 that works very nicely. If I want to do what is, I have to go around and change those numbers 20:40.480 --> 20:44.180 and record all the different values. With PREDICT, however, I can do something a bit 20:44.180 --> 20:47.660 different. I can actually represent all the values for a particular variable, in this 20:47.660 --> 20:52.780 case sales, in a single cell. And I do that by creating what is called a distribution. 20:52.780 --> 20:57.220 PREDICT has eight of these that are predefined and one that you can define yourself. Now, 20:57.220 --> 21:01.020 in the case that I just mentioned, let's say my sales are between $500 and $1,000, most 21:01.020 --> 21:06.140 likely let's say $700. That's what we call a triangular distribution. I can tell PREDICT 21:06.140 --> 21:10.260 to do or maintain, if you will, a list of 100 what ifs and then put in the values for 21:10.260 --> 21:18.100 the distribution. Let's say $500 as my minimum, $700 is my most likely, and $1,000 as my maximum. 21:18.100 --> 21:21.820 And I've created a probability distribution. I can do the same thing for cost. Let's say 21:21.820 --> 21:26.380 that I would say my cost would be between $300 and $700. And that's a uniform distribution 21:26.380 --> 21:31.700 because it doesn't really have a middle point. Again, I'll keep track of 100 what ifs. And 21:31.700 --> 21:37.540 I can keep track of up to $8,000 if I want. And let's say between $300 and $700. 21:37.540 --> 21:39.140 So you're just putting in your min, your max there. 21:39.140 --> 21:45.340 Exactly. Now, the nice feature, or actually the major feature of PREDICT is its ability 21:45.340 --> 21:49.300 to do the same sort of calculations you would in a spreadsheet, but to maintain all of the 21:49.300 --> 21:53.060 results that you would do for each one of those what ifs. So I can create a list of 21:53.060 --> 21:58.420 values. And rather than an initial list, which might be historical data, I can create it 21:58.420 --> 22:06.340 in an output sense, creating 100 values given my calculation, in this case, F7 minus F9. 22:06.340 --> 22:11.100 Now I can ask PREDICT to go out and do 100 what ifs automatically just by giving it that. 22:11.100 --> 22:16.500 And as you can see, the system is picking values from each of those two probability 22:16.500 --> 22:20.980 distributions and calculating values in the profit cell. And at the bottom of the screen, 22:20.980 --> 22:26.060 it's telling me how much time I have left until my calculations are done. The real question 22:26.060 --> 22:30.620 is now that all those values have been generated, what can we do with them? PREDICT has a number 22:30.620 --> 22:35.460 of features built in as spreadsheet features to handle probability distributions in terms 22:35.460 --> 22:38.340 of displays, and for example, graphics. 22:38.340 --> 22:40.660 So it's done its 100 calculations. How do you look at this now? 22:40.660 --> 22:45.300 Right. Well, one of the ways, most comprehensively, to look at a lot of data is to draw a graph. 22:45.300 --> 22:50.300 I can do that, let's say, by bringing down my profits graph here and looking at the information 22:50.300 --> 22:54.100 in this cell, F11. But not just the number that's on the screen. I want to look at all 22:54.100 --> 22:58.740 the values that have been generated. So I put a dollar sign on there. And now PREDICT 22:58.740 --> 23:02.820 will take those 100 values and create a probability distribution. And that will be shown in a 23:02.820 --> 23:03.820 graph here in a second. 23:03.820 --> 23:09.820 Now we can see a number of things here. We can see that there's some probability of a 23:09.820 --> 23:14.380 loss over towards the minus side. There's a much greater probability of a profit in 23:14.380 --> 23:17.660 this small business plan. And we can also see what the most likely value would be on 23:17.660 --> 23:18.660 the graph. 23:18.660 --> 23:20.700 Can you calculate the odds of a loss, for example? 23:20.700 --> 23:24.980 Sure. There's functionality, for example, with this perform calculate function that 23:24.980 --> 23:32.500 allows me to see, let's say, the chance of a number being wildly negative in that cell. 23:32.500 --> 23:34.180 And the answer is 8%. 23:34.180 --> 23:37.300 That's right. 23:37.300 --> 23:42.280 What about, we saw the new Mac 2 just before, and of course we know about the new IBM personal 23:42.280 --> 23:46.180 system 2. What are the consequences of that new IBM system in terms of you guys who are 23:46.180 --> 23:47.180 developing software? 23:47.180 --> 23:52.300 Well, from our standpoint, obviously people are demanding techniques such as these, which 23:52.300 --> 23:55.700 involve a lot more computations and a lot more data being stored. And obviously the 23:55.700 --> 24:00.100 faster of the machines and the more data that they can store, you know, going beyond, let's 24:00.100 --> 24:03.940 say, the 640K limit, is a boon to products like ours. 24:03.940 --> 24:08.380 And what about the graphical interface? Are we going to see that as a standard application 24:08.380 --> 24:09.380 interface? 24:09.380 --> 24:13.060 Well, I don't know. I mean, the fact is that people are very much used to seeing things 24:13.060 --> 24:16.580 in this format. And there are, you know, two, three, four million spreadsheet users in the 24:16.580 --> 24:19.500 world that use it exactly as you see there. Whether they want to learn something else 24:19.500 --> 24:21.980 to get the job done, only time will tell. 24:21.980 --> 24:25.380 Gentlemen, we're out of time. Thank you very much. That completes our look at spreadsheets. 24:25.380 --> 24:29.300 We'll be back next week with part four of this business application series looking at 24:29.300 --> 24:33.300 database managers. So be sure to join us then. Right now, stay tuned for this week's computer 24:33.300 --> 24:34.300 news. 24:34.300 --> 24:49.460 I'm Susan Chase, sitting in for Stuart Shafaei in the Random Access File this week. Lotus 24:49.460 --> 24:54.340 Development Corporation has signed a 10-year agreement with IBM to design software for 24:54.340 --> 24:59.940 its largest computers, starting with a version of 1-2-3 for the System 370 mainframes. The 24:59.940 --> 25:04.780 deal puts Lotus on a more even footing with Microsoft, which recently overtook Lotus as 25:04.780 --> 25:09.860 the world's largest manufacturer of PC software and has long had a working relationship with 25:09.860 --> 25:15.260 IBM. Its most devastating effect will be on Ashton Tate, the only one of the Big Three 25:15.260 --> 25:20.580 software makers without such a relationship. The new version of 1-2-3 will not be available 25:20.580 --> 25:26.180 until next year. Lotus also announced two other versions of 1-2-3 with multi-dimensional 25:26.180 --> 25:32.060 support capability, a line of multi-user database programs, and an enhanced programming capability 25:32.060 --> 25:34.380 for 1-2-3. 25:34.380 --> 25:40.660 And the race for the fastest computers continues. ETA Systems recently unveiled the ETA-10, 25:40.660 --> 25:46.860 a supercomputer capable of processing 10 billion calculations per second. ETA, a control data 25:46.860 --> 25:51.700 subsidiary, claims the new machine has twice the performance of supercomputers made by 25:51.700 --> 25:56.500 industry leader Cray Research. Cray, on the other hand, believes their Cray-2 is three 25:56.500 --> 26:02.340 times faster than the ETA-10. And further competition comes from thinking machines, 26:02.340 --> 26:07.820 with their announcement of a machine that reportedly outperforms both ETA-10 and Cray-2 26:07.820 --> 26:09.420 on some tasks. 26:09.420 --> 26:14.040 Apple Computer plans to create an independent software company to promote the creation of 26:14.040 --> 26:19.380 programs for its computers by small developers. The new Apple Company will sell programs written 26:19.380 --> 26:23.780 by other companies who would not otherwise have the resources to market and distribute 26:23.780 --> 26:27.980 their products. In addition, it will sell programs currently published by Apple but 26:27.980 --> 26:32.460 under its own label. Apple sees these new products as a way of stimulating sales of 26:32.460 --> 26:36.220 its computers by making them capable of doing more things. 26:36.220 --> 26:41.260 Now it's time for this week's software review, and here's Paul Schindler. 26:41.260 --> 26:46.260 Outlines obscure details. The same is true of many outliners now on the market. They 26:46.260 --> 26:51.340 tend to obscure rather than illuminate. Now that was before More, a most graphical outliner 26:51.340 --> 26:56.060 and database. First of all, as a simple outliner, it offers you the option of looking at any 26:56.060 --> 27:02.380 outline in three different graphic formats, tree, bullet, or outline. You can hop back 27:02.380 --> 27:08.340 and forth between various levels of detail. In addition, you can change fonts, add lines, 27:08.340 --> 27:12.540 eliminate the menu at the bottom, change numbers to bullets, and use More to create overhead 27:12.540 --> 27:17.340 slides. Now if that were all it could do, More would be cute. But you can also have 27:17.340 --> 27:22.660 six different files open at once on the screen. And More can total figures within the outline. 27:22.660 --> 27:27.940 Actually, More does many things. It can do memos and letters. It can keep an online calendar. 27:27.940 --> 27:31.460 Now suppose you want to keep your calendar in More. You bring up a calendar, drag the 27:31.460 --> 27:37.100 mouse across it, and More will create a calendar outline. Other templates can be used for expenses, 27:37.100 --> 27:43.340 order entry, or an address book. More is an outliner for use on the Apple Macintosh, $295 27:43.340 --> 27:48.380 from Living Video Text of Mountain View, California. For the Computer Chronicles, I'm Paul Schindler. 27:48.380 --> 27:50.540 And that's it for this week's Computer Chronicles. 27:50.540 --> 27:58.380 The Computer Chronicles is made possible by Leading Edge, makers of IBM-compatible computer 27:58.380 --> 28:02.940 systems including word processing with spelling correction, communication software, and Hays 28:02.940 --> 28:09.820 compatible 1200 and 2400 baud modems. Leading Edge, with over 1,000 service centers nationwide. 28:09.820 --> 28:15.020 Leading Edge, leading the way to the information age. Additional funding is provided by McGraw-Hill, 28:15.020 --> 28:20.180 publishers of Byte. Byte's detailed technical articles on new hardware, software, and languages 28:20.180 --> 28:42.020 cover developments in computer technology worldwide.